Zhang Yuyan

　　The growth in the influence of China’s voice on formulating, explaining and implementing international rules is not in step with its growth in economic strength. If there is no power in setting the rules, national strength may be imaginary.

　　I want to appraise China’s development in the next decade starting from three levels: the institutional level, the currency level and the value level. First of all, looking at China’s development, GDP has already reached 8.2 trillion dollars this year, which is ten times the amount of a few years ago, and there is, in the long term, in the speed of growth, as much as a 4 percent difference between China and the United States. If this gap is maintained year on year, it will cause a significant change in the long run.

　　From a global perspective, developed countries all over the world have entered into a period of “Japanization”. “Japanization” includes the following characteristics. Firstly, currency policy cannot be carried out in terms of conventional policies, and after the economy slides into slump, it can only be stimulated through unconventional policies. Secondly, the outstanding national debt issue. For example, in the euro zone, debt accounts for 87% to 88% of GDP, and in the United States it accounts for 100% of GDP. Thirdly, the aging problem is serious. In the United States, there are nearly ten thousand people a day who retire, and the government still has no agreement on how to deal with this issue. Fourthly, political polarization is intensified. Domestic political polarization has gradually intensified in Europe, Japan and the United States, and it is hard to obtain compromise. Therefore, by comparison, China’s international status has the possibility and space to rise.

　　Firstly, at the institutional level, the most important thing is that the growth in the influence of a country’s opinions on formulating, explaining and implementing international rules is not in step with its growth in economic strength. If there is no power in setting the rules, national strength may be imaginary. There is still a long way for China to go regarding the formulation of international rules. In the past, we kept a low profile while carrying out reform and opening up, generally accepted existing international rules, and did not challenge them. This strategy worked.

　　However, China’s national strength is increasing; the total GDP of the BRICS has reached 15 trillion dollars, and calculating in light of the exchange rate, China’s GDP is equal to the sum of the other four member countries. According to the “Delhi Declaration” raised by the BRICS, it is necessary to clearly advocate a more rational international order, and clearly appeal for changes to international rules.

　　It is seen in the report of the eighteenth National Congress of the CPC that China’s diplomatic language has changed significantly. Originally, in most cases we talked about what we opposed, and what we did not advocate. Nowadays, we prefer to talk about what we advocate, and what to do. In order to play an active role in the international political and security realm, China should build up the system for consolidating national defense and modernization, which is commensurate with its international status and national security interests. China should actively participate in international affairs and play a role as a responsible country. However, in general, we still have a long way to go.

　　The process of formulating international rules requires diplomatic means and skills. It requires abilities to turn interests and ideas into realistic rules and institutions. There is still a gap between the West and us in the fields of science and technology, and in formulating international rules the situation is the same. These rules have been played with by the west for many years, and they are familiar with them, but we still need to learn. In the United States Trade Representative Office, there are many lawyers who are responsible for the fields of trade, iron, steel and textiles. The division of their specializations is clearly defined. In the process of establishing international rules, even if your voting rights increase, it does not mean your authority is also growing. In this aspect, we still have a long way to go.

　　Secondly, from a monetary perspective, it is of key importance whether or not one country’s currency is a global one. Viewed from a general standard, in the global market the broad US dollar gross is about 16 trillion or more; if this money always circulates outside its borders the United States will gain huge benefit from this. Of course, the US dollar also takes responsibility as a world currency. And the euro zone definitely has the strength to support the euro as a world currency. There is still strong demand for both the US dollar and the euro. Therefore, the internationalization of the RMB will have a long and arduous course.

　　Thirdly, from the aspect of conceptual issues and development modes, we can use six terms to summarize China: socialism, reform and opening up, development, rapid growth, yet to be unified and large country. The amount of steel reserves per capita in China is less than 4 tons. Compared with 20 tons in the United States, we have not yet reached a quarter. If China wanted to reach just half the US figure, it would take at least three earths worth. Therefore, China is bound to become a world power because of scale and demand. We should devote adequate attention to improving future development. Currently, the United States is the only country which can impose its influence on China.

　　The last factor is soft power. The concept of soft power was proposed by Professor Joseph Nye from Harvard University. It means using persuasive education, moral charisma and the force of example to persuade others, instead of threats and intimidation. We are using this concept nowadays. On the one hand it is undoubtedly very important to strengthen a country’s soft power, which on the other is intangible. Some people want to carry out a quantitative analysis of it, but this is quite difficult.

　　( See the text in Chinese : http://magazine.caijing.com.cn/2012-12-09/112345630.html )

　　Translated by Chen Meina

　　Editor: Du Mei