The question

The War between Chu and Han is a subject of much research. Many political figures and scholars have analysed it and drawn conclusions. A look at the last three-decades of relevant research shows that the reasons why Xiang Yu lost to Liu Bang are categorised as follows: Liu Bang’s wise selection of officials; the difference in Liu Bang and Xiang Yu’s strategy and tactics; lack of political consciousness; and unfavourable geographical position.

Some scholars try to interpret the reasons from the leaders’ psychological perspectives. One scholar attributes Liu Bang’s victory to his personality: open-minded, decisive, generous, and lenient but scheming. By contrast, Xiang Yu was foolhardy, indecisive, obstinate, and atrocious. Another scholar points out Xiang Yu’s dual personality: conflicts between good and evil, beauty and ugliness, and firmness and gentleness. Xiang Yu was irritable and gave importance to his emotions over rights and wrongs. Still another scholar notes that Xiang Yu’s personality was incompatible with the social character needed for leadership; hence, the contradiction between his atrociousness and the civilians’ search for peace led to the civilians’ rebellion.

However, the works by some modern historians of the Qin and Han Dynasties before the early 1980s present a different perspective of the War between Chu and Han: Xiang Yu’s loss to Liu Bang is a consequence of the struggle between the new and old classes. This interpretation of the outcome of a war by class theory has been abandoned by many young scholars, but a new theory has not been found; hence the lack of theory in historical interpretation.

In this article, the Prospect Theory in political psychology is introduced to give a psychological analysis of Xiang Yu’s decision at Hongmen Banquet, a major event in the War between Chu and Han. The use of the Prospect Theory not only makes up the insufficiency in the young scholars’ psychological interpretation of political phenomena, but also adds to the past scholars’ interpretations of the War between Chu and Han. The Prospect Theory holds that the reference point, or the framework of a question is critical to decision making, which determines the assessment of gains and losses. In the political field, the Prospect Theory is more widely used in the study of a leader’s decision making in crisis. Political ambition often influences the decision maker’s political behavior.

The background against which Xiang Yu set his reference point

A leader’s ideals and ambition are formed by both personal elements and the environment. That is, his ambition is not a castle in the air, but develops in the social environment. For example, in the peasant uprisings since the Qin and Han Dynasties, the leaders’ dream was no more than to become an emperor. As no democratic state existed in society, the leaders could not devise their ambitions on the basis of it.

Specifically, it is about the form of government, that is, how power is distributed. There was a consensus on the existence of emperor and emperor-subject relationship after the political practices in the Xia, Shang and Zhou Dynasties, and scholars’ contentions during the Spring and Autumn and Warring States Periods. However, the size of the emperor’s power and the form of the relationship between the emperor and the vassals were controversial. During the Qin and Han Dynasties, there were several systems available.

The first is the vassal states under a king, which existed in the Xia, Shang, and Western Zhou Dynasties; the second is the emperor-over king-vassal kings system, which appeared in the Spring and Autumn Period; the third is the situation where vassals fought for supremacy in the Warring States Periods; and the fourth is the autocratic monarchy after Qin Shi Huang, the first emperor of the Qin Dynasty, who united six states. Xiang Yu’s ambition was limited by the above paths.

An analysis of Xiang Yu’s reference point:

The Over-king over kings

When Qin Shi Huang first toured his land, Xiang Yu and his Uncle Xiang Liang were among the onlookers. After seeing the spectacular scene, Xiang Yu said, “he can be replaced.” At that time, Xiang Yu’s ideal was to wipe out the Qin Dynasty and replace Qin Shi Huang. He was not clear about what to do after that, because he had not risen up yet.

When Xiang Yu rose to rebel against Qin, he was under his uncle, Xiang Liang. Following Fan Zeng’s advice, Xiang Liang crowned the grandson of the King of Chu and he himself remained a general of Chu. That is to say, Xiang Liang’s ambition was just to overthrow the Qin Dynasty and restore the status of Xiang’s hereditary generals of Chu. Xiang Yu’s ambition was well above his uncle’s. He was not satisfied with being a Chu general, but desired to dominate all the vassal kings. The kings might maintain their titles and statuses, as long as they admitted that he was the Over-king.

In a word, after the Qin Dynasty was destroyed, becoming the Over-king among the kings was the basic reference point of Xiang Yu. In this framework, not realizing his ambition in politics and military actions is a loss while achieving his ambition is a gain.

Some actions of Xiang Yu can be explained in this framework. Specifically, his victory at the Battle of Julu contributed to his supremacy; but after that, his decision making was in the gain domain. He was unwilling to take risks, which is shown at the Hongmen Banquet.

An analysis of Xiang Yu’s behavior at the Hongmen Banquet

The Hongmen Banquet is the turning point for Xiang Yu, after which his success declined. The crucial point at the Hongmen Banquet is that Xiang Yu received Liu Bang’s recognition of Xiang Yu’s supremacy, through which Xiang Yu did not regard Liu Bang as an enemy. The judgment of whether somebody is an enemy is based on Xiang Yu’s reference point.

Xiang Yu held the Hongmen Banquet because of two information sources: one is Liu Bang’s Left Marshal, Cao Wushang, who sent a messager to tell Xiang Yu, “The Lord of Pei wants to be the King inside the Pass, with Zi Ying, the Qin prince, as his Prime Minister and take all the jewels for himself.” Xiang Yu was enraged at that. The other is his advisor, Fan Zeng, who said to Xiang Yu, “ When the Lord of Pei was in Shandong, he was greedy for material gains and collected beautiful women. But now I hear that after he entered the Pass, he left all the treasure untouched and did not favor any beauty. This shows that he has great ambitions. I asked fortune tellers to watch his halo, and it takes the shapes of tigers and dragons----the halo of the Son of Heaven. You should attack him and lose no time.” The first piece of information suggests that Liu Bang made light of Xiang Yu. The second piece of information shows that Liu Bang challenged Xiang Yu’s supremacy, affecting his political destiny. Therefore, before the Hongmen Banquet, Xiang Yu did have the intension to kill Liu Bang because of his great ambition.

Finally Liu Bang retreated successfully from Hongmen and Xiang Yu did not attack him because Xiang Yu believed that Liu Bang just wanted to be a king. The two resources that assured Xiang Yu of this are Xiang Bo, Xiang Yu’s uncle, and Fan Kuai, a subordinate of Liu Bang. Xiang Bo went to Liu Bang’s advisor, Zhang Liang, to inform against Xiang Yu, and Zhang Liang introduced him to Liu Bang. Liu Bang said, “I waited for His Lordship’s arrival day and night. How could I have any thoughts to rebel against him. Please go and speak for me and tell him I would not be ungrateful to his kindness towards me.” After Xiang Bo told this to Xiang Yu, Xiang Yu accepted it. When Xiang Zhuang performed the sword dance, Fan Kuai rushed in and said to Xiang Yu, “Now the Lord of Pei entered Xianyang first, yet he did not lay his hand on a single hair. He sealed up the palaces and withdrew his troops to Bashang to wait for you. The reason why he sent men to guard the Pass is to turn away bandits or cope with other emergencies. He endured so much hardship and had such accomplishments. Instead of rewarding him with any title, you listen to some mean man and intend to kill the hero. In my opinion, you are following the footsteps of the defeated Qin. Your Lordship must not head that way.” These words are no different from what Liu Bang had said to Xiang Bo, acknowledging again Xiang Yu’s supremacy over the kings. Based on the agreement with King Huai of Chu, Liu Bang should be conferred the title of king, just a vassal king.

Of course, Liu Bang’s acts also assured Xiang Yu of this. Liu Bang attended the banquet with only about 100 subordinates. During the banquet, he tried to depreciate himself, and offered valuable gifts to Xiang Yu. Under the framework of Xiang Yu’s assurance, he had two alternatives to choose among. First, as Fan Zeng suggested, kill Liu Bang at the banquet so that the War between Chu and Han would be avoided. But the risk came from Liu Bang’s army of 100 thousand soldiers. Waging a war would bring mass casualties to the army of Chu although Xiang Yu might win at last. Second, as he did, he could let Liu Bang go. His reinterpretation of Liu Bang held that Liu Bang, who just wanted to be a vassal king, already acknowledged his supremacy. In other words, Xiang Yu believed that there was no zero-sum game between him and Liu Bang, but a situation where he was the Over-king with Liu Bang as a vassal king.

An analysis of the source of Xiang Yu’s reference point

It should be noted that Cao Wushang and Fan Zeng believed that Liu Bang was aiming at being crowned as the emperor, while Xiang Bo and Fan Kuai held that Liu Bang was just trying to be a vassal king and nothing more. Finally the latter view prevailed.

In Xiang Yu’s consideration of his reference point, his affections were preferred over the ideas from advisors. Then how was his reference point formed? First, he was struck by Qin Shi Huang’s spectacular tour. Witnessing Qin Shi Huang’s grand presence, Xiang Yu then regarded him as a military target as well as a role model. He hoped he would be a person like Qin Shi Huang. Second, Xiang Yu hated Qin’s rule. Third, Xiang Yu was attached to his native place.

So as we can see, his affection for his countrymen, kinship and chivalrousness were clearly etched in his life stories. When these emotions were aligned with his political intentions and behaviors, they would be conducive to his success. When they ran in different ways, his emotions would prevail over political considerations. In other words, his emotions disturbed his sense of political decision-making. Throughout Xiang Yu’s life, his emotions contributed to both his success and failure.

First, Xiang Yu gave priority to kinship and romantic love over other relationships. However, this priority adversely affected his decisions. As we can see, just because Xiang Bo informed Liu Bang against him before the banquet, persuaded him not to attack Liu Bang, and protected Liu Bang at the banquet, Liu Bang barely escaped with his life.

Second, Xiang Yu valued his affection for his countrymen. The eight thousand soldiers he and his uncle recruited from Wuzhong were their seed troops, which influenced Xiang Yu’s future political and military careers.

Third, Xiang Yu had a chivalrous spirit. He conferred three generals into vassal kings, who were victims of Qin’s rule, and later surrendered to Chu. His chivalrousness influenced his judgment on himself and his enemies. This is more evidently seen in his attitude towards Liu Bang----his judgment on Liu Bang was based on his emotions.

Generally, Xiang Yu’s thinking model was always subjective. He never put himself in the other party’s position, and made decisions based on the other party’s personal characteristics and behavior patterns. Therefore, wrong judgments were often made. Just as Han Xin remarked, Xiang Yu was a man of foolhardiness and petty-kindness. He was unable to cope with love-hate relationships. Emotions disturbed his framework setting and his rational analysis of political events.

Prospect Theory explains why this difference led to Xiang Yu’s failure in the War between Chu and Han. Xiang Yu’s ambition was to be Over-king among the vassals. In this framework, his decisions before the Battle of Julu were in the loss domain, thus his army broke all the caldrons and sank every boat to put themselves in a desperate situation. At the Hongmen Banquet, he was in the gain domain, unwilling to take any risk. Xiang Yu’s ambition determined that he and Liu Bang were not in a zero-sum game. If Liu Bang admitted his Over-king status, he would allow Liu Bang to survive; therefore, he let Liu Bang go.

Ji Naili is from Zhou Enlai School of Government at Nankai University.