【Core prompt】According to the analysis in the latest report of global military expenditure released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “there is no possibility of a China threat,” which is quite different from the argument for a “China threat” as previously exaggerated by some western media and research institutions, and rejects the idea that a “China factor” is the only factor for an Asian and global arms race, that is, the “China factor” is not the reason for the global arms race.

On the 17th of April, SIPRI released the “SIPRI factsheet on military expenditure for 2011.” The annual report on military expenditure in the world is widely considered as the definitive report on global military security. It focuses on reflecting the general trend of global military expenditure and the growth of all nations’ militaries based on data and analysis. Therefore, it has widespread influence and high value for reference. The latest report rejects both the argument of a “China threat” previously exaggerated by some western media & research institutions and the idea that the “China factor” is the only factor for an Asian and global arms race, that is, the “China factor” is not the reason for the global arms race.

Intriguing reading by outsiders

The development of China’s military and the increase of its military expenditure are always the focus of the world. Recently, this topic has heated up further, some people in succession have made comments and published research reports to talk about the topic on different levels. However, the annual report released by SIPRI is more noticeable and intriguing. Although the China’s military and its military expenditure grew rapidly in the recent decade, but the argument that “China may threaten the West” deduced from that was inadequate, said the report. According to the SIPRI estimate, global military expenditure in 2011 was about 1.74 trillion dollars, equal to the previous year, of which, China’s military expenditure was 923 billion Yuan (approximately 143 billion dollars), which is second only to the United States and ranked second in the world. Although there is a certain gap between the estimate made by SIPRI and the data released by Chinese government, but the report shows that China’s military expenditure holds an extremely stable proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). The reason China increased its military expenditure was to raise the salary of personnel, improve the conditions of the army, and promote the modernization of military equipments and technology. The “China factor” is not the only factor escalating a global arms race. Therefore, the report by SIPRI elaborates in a more positive way the focus of China’s increased military expenditure, and rejects the argument that the increase in China’s military expenditure triggers an “Asian arms race.”

However, in March, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS, which has the same influence as SIPRI) released a report entitled “The Military Balance 2012” and said that a close analysis of the rapid growth of China’s military expenditure in the last decade is needed….At present, the Asian arms race has already entered into a fierce period, and one side in the competition is China. It is also considered that the growth of China’s military expenditure is the main reason for America to shift the focus of its military strategy to the Asian-pacific region. Obviously, the report by the IISS is to exaggerate the argument of the “China threat,” and put the responsibility of the warming global arms race on the “China factor.” The argument is not only ridiculous, but also unconvincing. The different readings on the growth of China’s military expenditure from SIPRI and the IISS reflect that the relevant institutions have paid more attention to the growth of China’s military expenditure, and the debate on whether there is the possibility of a “China threat” become heated; on the other hand, it also reflects the present situation that the Asian and global arms races are turning white-hot. Therefore, under the current circumstance of a rise in Asian and global arms races, there is obviously an ulterior motive for exaggerating the argument for the “China factor” and “China threat” by some people.

Ulterior motives for exaggerating the “China factor”

The China’s defense budget for 2012 is 670.274 billion Yuan, 67.604 billion Yuan more than last year. It increases by 11.2%, accounting for 1.3% of GDP and 5.56% of total public expenditure. Therefore, China’s defense budget increased moderately, which is in accordance with the growth of its GDP, the total public expenditure, economic scale and size of China. China has not increased hugely its military and increased military expenditure because of the expansion of the economy and the increase of its economic strength.

Meanwhile, in recent years, the development of the militaries in some Asian countries speeded up unusually. Not only is their increased military expenditure quite incongruous with the shares of their GDPs and total public expenditure, but also the development of the militaries does not match their current economic scales and strength, going beyond the scope that is it capable of withstanding. The main reason for the efforts is that some nations are too sensitive to and worried too much about China’s military modernization and increase of military expenditure. They compete to increase military expenditure and purchase weapons in large scale. It is obvious that they have exaggerated the “China factor.”

In the new round of arms races in Asia and the world, the western media and politicians have their own proof for the argument of a “China threat.” There is a view that even the intention of China’s peaceful development should not be questioned, the worries for its enhancement of the level of military modernization are plausible, and it is inevitable that the “China factor” would trigger an Asian and global arms race. It is obvious that it is the argument for a “China factor” that works on it. Not long ago, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a consulting group for American Congress, published a report that held a similar opinion. The report was a warning that “America has underestimated or misjudged the growth of China’s military power,” which had the same opinion as the IISS to exaggerate the “China factor.” However, there is another view that disagrees with the “China factor” triggering an Asian and global arms race. It is thought that some have exaggerated the “China factor,” and the so-called “China threat” is a straw man argument. Obviously, a series of negative reports from some western media and institutions on the development of China’s military and growth of its military expenditure have made the “China factor” becomes the excuse of some nations keen on the arms race for their efforts to strengthen their militaries.

The subconscious “China threat” meme won’t go away

The growth of China’s military expenditure is always an important topic commented on by the western media. In a series of reports related to military development published by the west, you can smell a scent of the “China factor” and the subconscious meme about the “China threat” won’t go away. In fact, it reflects that the west has a complex mind-set of “doubting” China’s development. This mind-set has different layers, such as ideology, economic benefit, and the inability to adapt brought on by the ebb-and-flow trend of eastern and western economies. The basic reason is that globalization and rise of China have already changed the balance of power in the eastern and western worlds, and the development of China reflects the enhancement of China’s international influence in the world and the promotion of China’s position in the international arena. Some western media is saturated with prejudice toward China’s military modernization, and this is a new ideological trend from various anti-China forces aimed at China’s development, behind this would be the anti-China mood and the haunting of the “China threat”.

In the game of different values among Chinese and western civilizations, some western media and politicians always use inherent pride and prejudicial attitudes to look at China, ignore China’s dignity, hurt the feelings of the Chinese public, and exacerbate the conflict of different values between Chinese and western civilizations. Although there is a certain difference in values between Chinese and western civilizations, it does not mean Chinese and western civilizations cannot exchange. As the world is globalizing, ideologies based on different civilizations and values are no longer the basic factor that impedes exchanges between people from all over the world. Although there may be conflicts between different civilizations and values, but through the exchanges of polity, economy, culture, and sports, the conflicts can be reduced by deepening mutual understanding. Western media should have fair and objective attitude when reporting China, which can gain the trust of the Chinese public; meanwhile, in the communication with western values, the Chinese public also should eliminate estrangement with foreigners by using the proper means of communication, to dispel the collision between Chinese and western civilizations and create a harmonious world.

The author is an expert on international security from the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Translated by Chen Meina