Population is an overarching strategic issue. The Resolution of the CPC Central Committee on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization (hereinafter referred to as the “Resolution”) underscored the need to refine the policy systems and incentive mechanisms for boosting the birth rate and strive to build a childbirth-friendly society. Emphasizing the “incentive” nature and “friendly” orientation of related policies, this directive provides valuable inspiration for top-level policy design to address population dynamics in the new era. It represents a forward-looking arrangement aimed at achieving long-term, comprehensive, and balanced economic and social development.

Adapting to new era

Since reform and opening up, China’s demographic development has been characterized by declining fertility rates and the resultant falling dependency ratio, alongside a rapidly growing working-age population.

In the economic takeoff stage, the main role of population manifested as labor inputs. Leveraging its labor advantage, China scored remarkable development in manufacturing, particularly in labor-intensive industries in coastal areas. As the country’s economic development entered a new stage, the demographic dividend—stemming from a growing working-age population and a low dependency ratio—began to gradually diminish, following shifts in the population structure.

As a consequence of persistently low fertility rates, China’s population began to shrink starting in 2022. This demographic shift resulted not only from the general trend that fertility rates tend to decrease with rising per capita income, but also from the legacy of outdated family planning policies. The decreasing working-age population caused by falling fertility rates signals profound changes in the demographic environment and serious challenges facing Chinese modernization.

In addition to accelerated population aging, a pressing need exists to refine the support and service systems for population development, thereby cultivating a high-quality population. The building of a childbirth-friendly society is essential to adapting to rapid population evolution and improving demographic strategies, representing top-level design for population management in the new era.

Systematic project

The Resolution also stressed instituting a sound system to provide full life-cycle population services to all. Promoting high-quality demographic development requires applying systems thinking to the population planning process, with the building of a childbirth-friendly society woven throughout these plans.

First, maintaining a moderate fertility rate and population size is the basic objective of a childbirth-friendly society. Population size serves as the foundation and carrier of human capital, and moderate population expansion will generate essential externalities for economic growth. Demographic research suggests that a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 is ideal for ensuring sustainable population development.

According to China’s seventh population census, the country’s TFR had dropped to 1.29 in 2020. Data from the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2020 shows that the TFR of middle-income countries averaged 2.16, that of middle- and upper-income countries (excluding China) was 1.90 on average, and high-income countries featured an average TFR of 1.56.

Low fertility rates have loomed large amidst China’s demographic development, highlighting the necessity of achieving balanced population development primarily by boosting fertility rates, and of fully grasping the main factors which inhibit the increase of fertility rates during the implementation of pertinent policies.

To this end, it is first crucial to address the conflicts between childbearing and women’s participation in the labor market to effectively raise fertility intentions. Additionally, investment in a socialized childcare service system must be strengthened to reduce the costs associated with childbearing and childrearing by expanding the provision of public services.

Second, instituting a sound system to provide full life-cycle population services to all is an intrinsic requirement of a childbirth-friendly society. Each age group within the population has distinctive livelihood needs that are interconnected and mutually influential. Promoting high-quality population development and building a childbirth-friendly society entails demographic planning through systems thinking to effectively reduce the costs of childbearing, childrearing, and education, ensure that human capital investments pay off, and build an education and human capital accumulation system that meets public needs. Thus it is vital to formulate targeted policies based on the full cycle of population development.

Early development is pivotal to the formation of human capital. Increasing public investment in the 0 to 3 age group not only encourages fertility intentions but also positively impacts overall population quality. Moreover, as economic structures shift rapidly, identifying the composition of general knowledge and professional skills at each educational stage, and dynamically aligning it with development needs, is essential in top-level education design. In addition, given technological progress and industrial transformation within the current education system, expanding lifelong education and skills training is vital to ensuring continued returns from human capital.

Among concrete measures for building a childbirth-friendly society, increasing fertility rates to a moderate level requires more attention to supporting and incentivizing families in childbearing and childrearing. Only by satisfying families’ diverse fertility intentions can childbirth be truly friendly, and can population growth coordinate with economic and social development.

Qu Yue is a research fellow from the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.