At the heart of a systems approach to macroeconomic governance is a shift away from localized, static analysis toward a more holistic and dynamic view of the economy. Mainstream economics has long been deeply influenced by Newtonian mechanistic determinism, treating the macroeconomic system as a mechanical structure composed of atomized individuals and governed by linear causality, while seeking to ensure its stable operation through precise “fine-tuning” of various macroeconomic policies.

Today, as profound transformations unseen in a century accelerate and patterns of international cooperation and competition undergo major changes, macroeconomic activity is marked by pronounced uncertainty, abrupt shocks, and interconnectedness, leaving traditional theories of macroeconomic governance increasingly unable to provide effective explanations. It is therefore necessary to draw on a quantum systems perspective to drive innovation in macroeconomic governance and develop a more explanatory theoretical framework.

Quantum-like characteristics of modern macroeconomic systems

Modern macroeconomies exhibit the characteristics of complex systems. Rather than simple aggregates of individual microeconomic agents, they are emergent outcomes arising from nonlinear interactions among various elements. They are also displaying increasingly pronounced quantum-like characteristics, offering important insights for macroeconomic governance.

First, the decision-making behavior of economic agents exhibits salient characteristics of “superposition” and “collapse upon measurement.” Mainstream economics assumes economic agents to be “rational actors” with well-defined preferences and linear decision-making processes. Yet in highly uncertain environments, their behavior often remains in a state of superposition in which multiple possibilities coexist. The release of macroeconomic policy signals functions much like “measurement” in quantum mechanics, causing agents’ behavioral states to collapse from a probability distribution into a definite choice.

Second, macroeconomic dynamics follow the logic of nonlinear feedback and emergence. The traditional paradigm seeks smooth growth based on “first-order derivatives,” whereas modern macroeconomic systems may undergo “quantum leaps” triggered by the resonance of expectations. Expectation management has assumed an increasingly prominent role in macroeconomic governance precisely because expectations themselves can produce effects analogous to quantum interference. When policy signals are clear and credible, the expectations of countless decentralized agents can undergo “constructive interference,” generating momentum that far exceeds the sum of individual actions and propelling nonlinear economic development. Conversely, ambiguous signals may give rise to system-wide destructive interference.

Third, from a quantum systems perspective, the relationship between the government and the market is characterized by deep “quantum entanglement” and “system coherence.” Combining an efficient market with a well-functioning government is not a matter of simple physical addition, but of intrinsic, organic entanglement. In a quantum systems framework, the government is not an external force intervening in the market, but an integral component of the system. The two are mutually responsive and co-evolve within a shared economic field.

Practical pathways to more effective macroeconomic governance

The quantum systems perspective conceives of the macroeconomic system as a vibrant, internally entangled, and dynamically evolving organic whole. By emphasizing systemic interconnectedness, state superposition, and nonlinear evolution, it calls for a shift in macroeconomic governance from “deterministic governance” toward “probabilistic governance,” opening new practical pathways for improving governance effectiveness.

First, the target system for macroeconomic regulation should be optimized to shift from “point targets” toward “range- and probability-based governance.” The uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics reveals the impossibility of precisely anchoring all economic indicators simultaneously. Setting scientifically defined regulatory ranges and paying particular attention to coherence across economic fluctuations can help prevent the macroeconomic system from descending into disorderly interference.

Second, policy coordination mechanisms should be reshaped to establish and improve assessments of the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations, thereby reducing “systemic noise.” The quantum systems perspective suggests that fiscal, monetary, industrial, regional, and other types of policies should remain phase-synchronized in their effects on the economy, preventing policies from offsetting one another. This offers theoretical guidance for refining mechanisms for assessing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations.

Third, digital governance capabilities should be enhanced by leveraging artificial intelligence and quantum computing technologies to develop “situational awareness” systems. Quantum technology is not only a strategic frontier in international competition, but also a key pillar supporting macroeconomic governance. By developing digital twin economic systems, policymakers can simulate system-collapse outcomes under different policy pathways, shifting from “post-hoc adjustment” toward advance simulation and policy rehearsal.

Fourth, efforts should be made to strengthen the market system’s capacity for “self-organization” while fully leveraging the advantages of China’s ultra-large-scale market and comprehensive industrial system. The sheer scale of the market gives the macroeconomic system an exceptionally high degree of freedom and substantial room for trial and error, providing a natural setting for “quantum tunneling”-style institutional experimentation.

Fifth, sound evaluation mechanisms should be closely integrated with systems thinking, while performance assessment systems should continue to be refined. From a quantum systems perspective, evaluation should shift from focusing on “static outputs” toward emphasizing “systemic potential.” Accordingly, performance assessments should incorporate more indicators that reflect the deeper structure of the macroeconomic system, including innovation momentum, green and low-carbon development, and risk resilience, thereby preventing short-termist behavior from disrupting complex quantum leaps in the macroeconomy.

Shao Chuanlin is a professor from the School of Economics and Finance at Huaqiao University.