Empowering area studies with middle-range theory provides a solid theoretical foundation for more systematic and comprehensive area studies. Image generated by AI

As globalization continues to deepen, China’s international exchanges and cooperation are expanding, accompanied by increasingly close economic, trade, and investment ties with countries and regions worldwide. The scope of China’s area studies must therefore broaden, encompassing both in-depth research on the development trajectories of major powers and a precise understanding of the distinctive characteristics of different regions and countries. Sound diplomatic planning and external economic cooperation depend on accurate assessments of countries’ development conditions, governance logic, and interests and priorities, further underscoring the growing academic value and practical significance of area studies.

Area studies in AI era

Globalization has heightened the strategic value of area studies, while advances in AI are reshaping the field’s boundaries, methods, and core research priorities. With the growing use of large models and big data technologies, many traditional area-studies tasks centered on collecting and organizing information can now be performed efficiently by AI.

While AI is empowering research, it is also clarifying the direction in which area studies must evolve. Although the technology has clear advantages in detailed description and information extraction, it remains comparatively weak in theoretical analysis and in probing the causal logic, mechanisms, and underlying dynamics behind observed phenomena. Area studies in the AI era must therefore move beyond the simple compilation of information and description of phenomena, placing greater emphasis on theory building, mechanism analysis, and the identification of broader patterns. In doing so, the field can strengthen its scholarly value and develop distinctive capabilities that complement technological tools.

Theoretical innovation in area studies requires sustained engagement with emerging phenomena and issues. As global challenges intensify and regional instability becomes more frequent, new problems, tensions, and contradictions continue to surface, providing abundant empirical material for theoretical inquiry. The structural problems associated with the overexpansion of globalization, for example, manifest differently across regions. European and American countries have faced mounting pressures from cross-border migration, with persistent governance challenges affecting socioeconomic development. In some developing countries, meanwhile, the uneven distribution of globalization dividends has widened wealth disparities and intensified social tensions, increasing the risks of domestic instability and conflict spillover. From China’s own development perspective, issues such as the external pressures accompanying the rise of a major power, intensifying strategic competition among major countries, and the challenges of adapting the Belt and Road Initiative to diverse regional conditions are all closely connected to area studies. These developments raise the bar for the field’s analytical rigor and depth while also opening new avenues for theoretical innovation.

Empowering area studies with middle-range theory

Compared with the grand theories of international relations, which are better suited to broad, macro-level questions, middle-range theories are more closely aligned with the application scenarios of area studies. Their moderate research scope and focus on specific mechanisms allow them to avoid both the excessive abstraction and limited applicability of grand theory and the fragmentation and lack of generalizability associated with individual case studies. As international relations develops toward greater scientific rigor, analytical precision, and interdisciplinarity, middle-range theory provides a solid theoretical foundation for more systematic and comprehensive area studies.

From the perspective of social science research paradigms, high-quality area studies seek to derive broadly applicable underlying patterns from phenomena specific to particular regions or countries, and then test those patterns across different contexts and cases. Middle-range theories offer a moderate degree of abstraction and generalizability, allowing them to bridge micro-level regional cases and macro-level patterns in international relations. This enables area studies to move beyond the limitations of traditional descriptive research and achieve genuine academic innovation and theoretical advancement.

The practical orientation of area studies differs from that of policy research. Policy research focuses on tracking current developments and responding to short-term practical needs, tasks that can increasingly be carried out efficiently with the aid of AI and big data technologies. Area studies, by contrast, seeks to uncover the deeper causal mechanisms underlying observed phenomena. Researchers can identify theoretically significant questions through close observation of specific regional and national developments, construct analytical frameworks using middle-range theories, and then distill the broader patterns at work beneath those phenomena. This research path gives area studies a form of theoretical innovativeness distinct from policy research, further strengthening the field’s core competitiveness.

Application of middle-range theory in area studies

Ongoing shifts in the international landscape and the spillover effects of regional conflicts are creating new empirical grounds for the further development of established middle-range theories, while also opening up diverse analytical perspectives for area studies. These perspectives can be developed by drawing on classic middle-range theories—including alliance theory, diplomatic and military decision-making theory, hedging theory, and the weaponization of interdependence—to analyze complex contemporary issues across regions and countries.

First, alliance theory can help explain variations in interaction within alliance systems. Although Europe, Israel, Japan, and South Korea are all US allies, their respective relationships with the United States have displayed distinct characteristics at different times. Researchers can therefore draw on alliance dilemma theory to examine the sources of tension, boundaries of cooperation, and future trajectory of the US-Europe alliance. US allies across different regions have likewise played differing roles in Washington’s trade and tariff conflicts with China. Alliance theory can be used to examine their strategic positioning, behavioral logic, and underlying interests, thereby extending its explanatory power in the context of evolving geopolitical competition.

Second, diplomatic and military decision-making theory provides an important framework for analyzing regional conflicts and national strategic choices. The US and Israeli military actions against Iran, for example, can be examined not only through alliance theory but also through the lens of decision-making theory. In the United States, lobbying and strategic interaction among the military-industrial complex and political interest groups can significantly shape diplomatic and military decisions in the Middle East, making them important endogenous factors in the adjustment of US regional strategy. Meanwhile, the rapid development of digital and AI technologies is exerting an increasingly significant influence on diplomatic and military decision-making.

Third, hedging theory can be used to analyze the strategic choices of small and medium-sized countries. In Southeast Asia, for example, some countries seek to mitigate the risks of major-power competition by hedging between China and the United States. This challenges the traditional binary view in international relations that states must either balance against or bandwagon with a major power. Hedging theory can therefore help scholars examine the strategic logic guiding smaller states amid major-power competition, while clarifying the formation mechanisms, conditions of applicability, and risk boundaries of hedging strategies. In turn, this can supplement and refine traditional balancing theory while contributing to the further development of middle-range theory.

Fourth, the weaponization of interdependence has become an important lens for analyzing contemporary major-power competition and regional conflict. In an era of deeply interconnected industrial and supply chains, interdependence among states carries both cooperative and competitive dimensions. Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian natural gas, for example, has turned energy interdependence into an important instrument of strategic leverage. While imposing successive rounds of sanctions on Russia, Europe has also had to absorb the economic consequences of disruptions to Russian energy supplies. With alternative sources difficult to secure in the short term, these sanctions have imposed substantial socioeconomic costs on Europe itself.

The deep integration of area studies and middle-range theory offers an effective path toward the high-quality development of the field, enabling advances on two fronts. Mature middle-range theoretical frameworks can help scholars analyze and synthesize emerging phenomena across different regions and countries, while comparisons of how the same theoretical mechanisms operate across varying regional and national contexts can broaden the applicability of established middle-range theories and contribute to the further development of international relations theory. By adopting an integrated “middle-range theory + area studies” research paradigm, scholars can better balance technological tools with academic inquiry, fostering both scholarly development and greater intellectual diversity within the field.

Qi Haixia is deputy dean and a professor from the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University.