On April 30, a seminar was held in Beijing to analyze and forecast China’s rural economy, during which the Green Book of Rural Areas (2024–2025) was released.

Zhao Zhimin, secretary general of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), highlighted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China’s agricultural and rural development has made historic strides. These developments have played a pivotal role as a “ballast stone” in navigating various risks and challenges, stabilizing overall economic and social progress, and fostering high-quality economic growth.

Published by the Social Sciences Academic Press (China) (SSAP), the Green Book of Rural Areas: Analysis and Forecast of China’s Rural Economy (2024–2025) was jointly compiled by the Rural Development Institute (RDI) at CASS and the Department of Rural Social and Economic Investigation at the National Bureau of Statistics. The book is divided into three sections: a general report, special topics, and hot topics, all aimed at analyzing the operational characteristics, market conditions, and notable advancements in China’s agriculture and rural economy in 2024, while forecasting development trends and key indicators for 2025. Based on this, major or contentious issues related to agricultural and rural development are also explored.

According to the Green Book, China’s agriculture and rural economy maintained a steady growth trajectory in 2024, providing strong support for high-quality economic and social development. Specifically, the total grain output reached 706.499 million tons, ensuring a sufficient supply of vital agricultural products. The agricultural trade deficit narrowed, while imports of soybeans, barley, and sorghum increased rapidly. At the same time, significant structural shifts occurred in the prices of agricultural products and food, with consumer prices for food in both urban and rural areas declining in a stable manner. The robust growth of agriculture-related industries helped stimulate consumption in rural markets, reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents, and driving steady increases in rural consumption expenditures. Additionally, solid progress in rural construction continued, and the efficiency of total factor allocation in rural areas kept improving.

The Green Book projects continued stable development for China’s agriculture and rural economy in 2025. Grain production is expected to remain steady, with output reaching approximately 700 million tons. The animal husbandry sector will maintain a positive growth trajectory, although live pig production may see a slight decline. Losses in beef and dairy cattle breeding are forecast to ease. Meanwhile, the structure of agricultural imports will be further optimized, with overall grain imports staying low and reductions anticipated in corn and beef imports. Prices for key agricultural products and food items are expected to remain generally stable. Corn prices are projected to rise moderately, while wheat and rice prices will hold steady. Pork prices may dip slightly, whereas beef and mutton prices are likely to stabilize and rebound. Fresh milk prices are expected to reach their lowest point in the first half of the year, with a recovery anticipated later in the year.

The Green Book also notes that agriculture-related industries will undergo a shift from traditional growth drivers to new engines of development, marked by improvements in both quality and efficiency. The sector’s growth rate is projected to reach around 5%, with increased market concentration and enhanced integration across agricultural service chains.

According to the Green Book, the trend of rising rural incomes is expected to continue, supported by the expansion of employment opportunities for migrant workers and the implementation of policies aimed at strengthening agriculture, benefiting farmers, and improving rural livelihoods. The per capita disposable income of rural residents is projected to rise to approximately 24,000 yuan. Meanwhile, the urban-rural income ratio is expected to decline further, narrowing to around 2.30.

The seminar was jointly held by the RDI, SSAP, and the Think Tank for Coordinated Urban-Rural Development, all affiliated to CASS.