The National Bureau of Statistics recently released data on China’s economic performance in the first half (H1) of 2025. According to preliminary estimates, the GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year (at constant prices), while the value-added output of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased 6.4%. The figures show that despite pressures and challenges, the national economy remained resilient in H1, operating steadily with signs of sustained improvement.

Primary, secondary, and tertiary industries developed in a coordinated manner, with key sectors showing robust growth momentum. Supply structure continued to improve, while consumption—the “main engine” of the economy—played a prominent role. Experts believe that the fundamentals of the Chinese economy—marked by strong resilience and ample room for maneuver—remain unchanged, with innovation-driven growth rapidly reshaping the economic landscape.

China’s 5.3% year-on-year GDP growth rate in H1 far outpaced the 2.8% global growth forecast for 2025 in the United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025. Sheng Bin, vice president of Nankai University, observed that achieving such results in today’s challenging global environment was no small feat, underscoring how China’s steady expansion is injecting greater stability into the world economy.

The manufacturing sector expanded 7.0%, further consolidating the foundation of the real economy, Sheng continued. Retail sales of consumer goods and services continued to rise, reflecting stronger domestic demand, while the advantages of China’s super-large domestic market and unified national market are gradually unfolding. Export trade remained resilient, driven in particular by robust growth in shipments of the “new three” green and low-carbon exports—new energy vehicles (NEVs), lithium batteries, and solar energy equipment—signaling a structural shift toward new drivers of growth.

In H1 of 2025, China’s economy displayed notable demand-side structural optimization, with consumption emerging as the primary driver of GDP growth. Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 5% year-on-year, while final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth. Notably, premium consumption categories posted marked increases: Sales of sports and recreational goods jumped 22.2%, and gold, silver, and jewelry sales rose 11.3%.

Foreign trade also showed resilience. The total value of goods trade surpassed 20 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion), a record high for the same period and the seventh consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth. Private enterprises played a particularly strong role, with imports and exports rising 7.3% and accounting for nearly 60% of the total.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals of employment and income continued to strengthen—the average surveyed urban unemployment rate declined to 5.2%, while real per capita disposable income grew 5.4%, laying solid groundwork for domestic demand expansion.

Zhong Jian, a professor of economics from Shenzhen University, observed that the better-than-expected performance of major economic indicators in H1 of 2025 was attributable to rapid consumption growth, stable expansion of import-export trade, generally steady employment conditions, and sustained growth in household income. These economic figures embody China’s distinctive strengths—ample policy flexibility, remarkable resilience, and vast growth potential.

The H1 economic growth highlights were particularly concentrated in new quality productive forces. First, production and sales of NEVs soared 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year, respectively, as sales of NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales. Renewable energy capacity additions reached 268 million kilowatts, nearly doubling from a year earlier. Second, the value-added output of large-scale high-tech manufacturing rose 9.5%, contributing 23.3% to overall industrial growth. Third, the profound optimization of consumption structure has taken hold, with sustained growth in service consumption and premium goods demand.

These achievements reflect both short-term policy effectiveness and the significance of longer-term structural transformation. Wen Yuyuan, a professor from the School of Applied Economics at Renmin University of China, pointed out that breakthrough growth in the new energy sector is the result of the long-term “dual carbon” strategy—to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060—together with targeted support for charging infrastructure through 2025 ultra-long special treasury bonds, marking a qualitative leap in the green energy transition.

Wen added that the role of high-tech manufacturing in leading industrial upgrading reflects the precise implementation of the projects for major national strategies and for building security capacity in key areas, signaling accelerated intelligent transformation of manufacturing. The deeper optimization of the consumption structure, he noted, shows that consumption upgrading is shifting from being driven by policy stimulus to endogenous growth.

These achievements are propelled by both short-term stimulus and medium-to-long-term transformation signals. In the short run, fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy have effectively boosted demand. Yet they also signal a long-term orientation toward innovation-driven, high-quality development that is steering industries away from traditional dependencies toward sustainable growth models, Wen concluded.